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EY Item Club predicts ‘low key’ Budget

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The EY Item Club expects the final Spring Budget to be an ‘unusually low key’ event, owing in part to recent good news on the economy and public sector borrowing, as well as to the fact that, having positioned the new Autumn Budget as the year’s main policy event, the chancellor is unlikely to use 8 March to announce major policy measures. See

The Office for Budget Responsibility has delivered some good news to the chancellor by revising its forecast for public sector net borrowing in the current 2016/17 fiscal year, down by £3bn to around £65bn. The improvement reflects a stronger growth in receipts from corporation tax, self-assessment, CGT, PAYE and VAT than expected in the OBR’s November forecast.

Also expected is an upward revision to the 2017 forecast for GDP growth from 1.4% to 1.6% or 1.7%, now that the government has outlined its vision for the UK’s post-Brexit relationship with the EU.